22nd April

 Please circulate this update to all relevant staff within your business.

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Click Here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report.

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB, HCC, QMS and LMCMI Data is levy funded

 

Click Here for the current EU Poultry Dashboard for Week 15 2024

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

Monthly statistics on the activity of UK hatcheries and UK poultry slaughterhouses (data for March 2024): Click Here

 

Hybu Cig Cymru (HCC) Market Commentary

 

Sheep

 

The GB prime lamb average has reached new record heights. During the most recent week ending 13th April, the average increased by over 21p on the previous week to stand at 850.7p/kg.

 

The deadweight average continues to trend higher than the £8/kilo mark, and is over 30% higher than the corresponding week last year.

 

Numbers forward were up 2% on the previous week – however numbers forward were some 2% lower than year-earlier levels at around 30,000 head.

 

Following the end of Ramadan and Easter, the next religious event in the calendar is Eid al-Adha on 16th of June, therefore it’s uncertain whether the strong averages are set to continue.

 

Cattle
 
The steer deadweight price for England and Wales recorded a third week of price decreases, with the most recent average now sitting below year-earlier levels.

 

The average fell by 1.4p to stand at 486.4p/kg. Steer numbers forward were up 14% on the previous week following the bank holiday to around 11,100 head. In contrast to the steer average, the cull cow average remained stable on the week following a few weeks of price rises.

 

The average remains at 353.1p/kg - which is some 65p higher than the longer-term 5-year average.

 

Cull cow numbers forward also recovered following the bank holiday and recorded 7,300 head, 21% higher on the week. 

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IGD Economics bulletin – 18th April: Click Here

 

Featuring Middle East conflict, inflation, wage growth, unemployment, food sector attractiveness and economic growth.

 

Middle East conflict: For IGD’s full analysis: Click Here

 

Lower food inflation

Declining inflation 

Wage growth slowing

Vacancies and unemployment

Sector attractiveness

Growth forecast

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Quality Meat Scotland Market Commentary Week 16 2024: Click Here

 

AHDB Market Commentary

 

Strong beef prices gave support to producers as fertiliser prices soared: Click Here

 

Extract: Despite climbing beef prices over the past few years, cattle farmers have had to battle huge inflation in key input costs. Looking at the relative values of fertiliser and beef gives an insight to the response to high input costs on the sector.

 

Weekly cattle & sheep market wrap – 18th April 2024: Click Here

 

Key points: Prices for week ending 13 April

 

• GB deadweight prime cattle prices dipped slightly for the week, with the all-prime average measure at 485.4p/kg.

 

• Cow prices continue to grow, up 1p to 356p/kg overall in the latest week.

 

• The GB OSL SQQ grew again to 851p/kg overall, as supplies remain tight compared to last year.

 

2024 Lamb outlook: production update: Click Here

 

Key points

 

• Total sheep meat production is expected to fall by 1.4% to 282,000 tonnes in 2024.

 

• The predicted lamb crop (Spring 2024 – Spring 2025) now sits at 15.9m head, a fall of 1.2% from the previous year.

 

• Carryover of old season lambs is forecast to fall by 185,000 from 2023 to 4.1m head from January – May.

 

• New season lamb slaughter is expected to grow in the second half of the year by just under 1% to 6.4m head.

 

Members may also be interested in these articles:

 

Opportunities in mozzarella for British exporters: Click Here

 

Irish milk production shows significant year on year declines for the fourth consecutive month: Click Here

 

Livestock & Meat Commission for Northern Ireland (LMCNI)

 

For the LMCNI Weekly bulletin, Saturday 20th April: Click Here

 

And Finally… A Podcast from Rabobank

 

US cattle market update – The rebuild is still some ways off

 

Angus Gidley-Baird speaks with Lance Zimmerman about the current state of the US cattle market, including any indications of the rebuild process and why the US domestic lean trimmings price has hit a new record.

 

To listen to the podcast: Click Here

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15th April

 Please circulate this update to all relevant staff within your business.

​

Click Here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report. 

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB, HCC, QMS and LMCMI Data is levy funded

 

Click Here for the current EU Poultry Dashboard for Week 14 2024

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

Hybu Cig Cymru (HCC) Market Commentary

 

Sheep

The GB prime lamb average has recovered during the most recent week following a small decrease during the week before. 

 

Following an increase of over 13p on the previous week, the average now stands at 829.5p/kg. The deadweight average continues to trend higher than the £8/kilo mark, and is over £2/kg higher than the corresponding week last year. 

 

Numbers forward were up 7% on the previous week – however numbers forward were still subdued at around 29,500 head, likely as a result of the bank holiday weekend impacting on kill days. 

 

The end of Ramadan (known as Eid al-Fitr) will be held around the 9th of April, which may provide support in the short term at least.

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Cattle

The steer deadweight price for England and Wales recorded a second week of price decreases. 

 

The average fell by 0.5p to stand at 487.8p/kg, which narrows the gap between this year and last to just 0.6p. Due to the bank holiday impacting on working days, steer numbers forward were down 1% on the previous week to around 9,800 head. 

 

In contrast to the steer average, the cull cow average price continues to gain momentum and increased by 3p on the week to stand at 353.1p/kg. 

 

This is the highest average recorded so far this year, and is almost 40p higher than the average recorded in the opening week of 2024. 

 

Cull cow numbers forward continued to decline with numbers at around 6,000 head – 4% lower than the previous week.

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IGD Economics bulletin – climate change and economic growth: Click Here

 

This week covering:

• Economic growth

• Climate change record

• Debt issues

• Retail crime

 

NOTE: The next IGD Viewpoint report will be launched on Thursday 25th April and will provide an outlook for the economy including GDP, labour and skills, consumers and government policy. 

We will include this on the AIMS Update on Friday 26th April.

 

Quality Meat Scotland Weekly Market Commentary: Click Here

 

QMS podcast - pork sector investment & market outlook

 

In this episode, QMS speak to Wayne Godfrey, Chief Executive of Brown Brothers, about their vision to add £100 million in retail sales of Specially Selected Pork via the family’s investment in the Brechin processing facility.  

 

Iain Macdonald, QMS’s Market Intelligence Manager,  talks about the beef, sheep and lamb markets, and the outlook for demand and supply. 

 

And, ahead of starting lambing Kate Rowell gave a roundup of the industry engagement she has been involved in over recent months.

 

To listen to the podcast: Click Here

 

AHDB Market Commentary

 

Weekly cattle & sheep market wrap – 11th April 2024: Click Here

 

Key points for prices for week ending 6th April:

 

• GB deadweight prime cattle prices continued to ease to levels just below the same week a year ago.

 

• Average deadweight sheep prices once again nudged upwards in the run up to the end of Ramadan, with the GB SQQ at 830p/kg.

 

• Estimated throughputs for cattle and sheep remained lower in the latest week due to the bank holiday, adding support to the marketplace.

 

Rabobank Commentary

 

Australia agribusiness April 2024: Sowing the seeds for success: Click Here

 

Beef: Rain through northern Australia provided support for cattle prices. If seasonal conditions remain favourable, we believe prices will remain around current levels for the coming month.

 

Sheepmeat: Sheepmeat prices have shown healthy improvements in late March and early April as widespread rainfall totals improved producer demand and weekly slaughter numbers fell in late March.

 

Dairy: Milk production in Australia continues to show signs of sustained recovery. So far this season, milk supply has increased by 3.1%, with growth across all regions. This trend should continue into 2024/25.

 

Consumer foods: Monthly food inflation for Australia slowed to 3.6% YOY in February 2024. Meanwhile, the latest retail data showed a sluggish performance in the food market.

 

New Zealand agribusiness April 2024: Unpacking the colours of autumn: Click Here

 

Beef: Demand from the US continues to drive some of the positive pricing, and this trend is likely to continue through this year. Cull cows are starting to hit the market now after a subdued start.

 

Sheepmeat: There has been positive export demand from some higher-value markets outside of China. The UK is seeing low domestic production, driving demand.

 

Dairy: Elusive milk supply remains a theme, outside of Oceania, helping to set a commodity price floor. Rabobank expects dairy commodity prices to remain range-bound at or near current levels in the near term.

 

Podcast: New Zealand and Australia sheepmeat update: April 2024

 

Jen Corkran and Angus Gidley-Baird chat about all things sheepmeat as we head toward the cooler months. They discuss what is happening in Australia and New Zealand and some interesting export statistics for both countries, as well as comment on the domestic sheepmeat market in the UK.

 

To listen to the podcast: Click Here

 

Livestock & Meat Commission for Northern Ireland (LMCNI)

 

For the LMCNI Weekly bulletin, Saturday 13th April: Click Here

 

And Finally… Further uncertainty over South American crop expectations: Grain market daily: Click Here

 

• UK feed wheat futures (May-24) fell £1.00/t yesterday, closing at £170.00/t. The Nov-24 contract ended the session at £194.25/t, down £0.25/t over the same period.

 

• Domestic wheat futures followed EU prices down, as traders adjusted positions ahead of yesterday evening’s USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates update. A lull in European export demand, as well as cheaper Black Sea supplies as of late also continue to pressure prices (LSEG).

 

• May-24 Paris rapeseed futures (May-24) were down €1.75/t from Wednesday’s close, ending the session at €451.50/t. The Nov-24 contract fell €5.00/t over the same period, closing at €461.75/t.

 

• Paris rapeseed futures followed the wider oilseeds complex down yesterday as weakness in the soya oil market filtered through. Warm and beneficial weather in Ukraine has also improved the country’s rapeseed outlook. LSEG now forecast Ukraine’s 2024 rapeseed crop to reach 3.8 Mt, up 0.1 Mt from March’s estimate.

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