Market Reports

Beef Market Outlook 

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Lamb Market Outlook 

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Pig Meat Forecast 

Brexit Commodity & Food Price Impact report HERE

16th May

Please circulate this update to all relevant staff within your business.

Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report. 

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

Click here for the current EU Poultry Dashboard for Week 18 2022

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

Podcast: Recovery Underway – Australia’s Beef Seasonal Outlook

 

Australia’s beef recovery is underway, but limitations in the supply chain will hinder the recovery from reaching its full potential. Dennis Voznesenski talks with Angus Gidley-Baird about this and all other things beef from the 2022 Rabobank Beef Seasonal Outlook.

 

To listen to the podcast: Click Here

 

HCC Weekly Price Update

 

Sheep prices


The combined average prime lamb liveweight SQQ at auction markets in Wales continues to be above long term levels for the time of year, whilst numbers of Old Season Lambs are now falling. New abattoir figures show that total lamb throughput so far in 2022 is up 11% on 2021 and up 2% on two years ago, with throughput of adult sheep up too.

Cattle prices


Prime cattle prices in England and Wales continue to hit record levels. Also, for the sixth consecutive week, the cull cow average stands over £1/kg higher than the 5-year average. Robust demand for cull cows from export markets (particularly the EU) is providing support to prices.  Cattle throughput and total UK beef production in 2022 so far is somewhat down on last year, but the month of April recorded a small increase

This week’s price information can be found on page 26 of todays Market Update Click here

 

Sustainability in the Supply Chain – Stories from Across the World

 

This week AHDB are leading an inward trade mission to the Philippines

 

The Department for International Trade have published a fact sheet on trade with the Philippines Click Here showing that meat and meat preparations are the UK’s 2nd largest export to the country with sales valued at £52.9 million.

 

We found a slide deck for a presentation from the University of the Philippines Los Banos: Click Here which talks about the Southeast Asian food system transformation and the need to move from:

 

  • Cropping system to farming systems 

  • Small holdings to commercial production 

  • Traditional to modern retail markets 

  • Production centric to market driven food systems

 

For details of the leading supermarkets: Click Here

 

The 2nd largest is Robinsons Click Here

 

and we took a look at their fresh meat and poultry product ranges:

 

The food service industry accounts for a substantial share of local consumption and production as dining out is fast becoming a part of the Filipino’s daily habit. In fact, spending on restaurants and hotels is the 2nd highest in terms of consumption expenditure growth, which indicates a growing culture of out-of-home consumption. 

 

Due to economic growth and increased income, Filipinos are now more willing to spend on higher value goods and services, such as better quality meals, ready-to-eat food delivery services, and new restaurant trends.

 

Whilst researching this piece we found a brand called Robina Farms. Their business includes pork and poultry production and they have a sustainability section on their website: Click Here

 

It includes a couple of interesting statements

 

WE UPLIFT THE INDUSTRY THROUGH THE INDIVIDUAL. Hog raising is a profitable business for many backyard farmers in rural areas. Being a true Kabalikat (partner), URC has trained new hog-raisers in partner-farms nationwide. This also means premium-quality meats for the local communities.

 

WE TURN POO INTO POWER. Our biogas digester plant uses chicken and hog manure to produce electricity for our chicken farm and hog farms, cutting our electricity demand.

 

We also looked at Bounty Fresh Chicken: Click Here

 

Bounty Fresh Chicken is a brand under Bounty Fresh Food Inc. and Bounty Agro Ventures Inc. that supplies dressed chicken to various hotels, restaurants, institutional food companies (HRI) as well as supermarkets in the Philippines.

 

They also own an on-line business called The Meat Market by Holly Farms Click Here

 

There are 17 EHCs here in the UK for the Philippines: Click Here and in terms of the meat and poultry industry, the principal ones are for:

 

Beef Exports: Click Here

 

Non bovine meat, meat products and meat preparations: Click Here

 

MRM: Click Here

 

There is also an EHC for Pet Food: Click Here and Dehydrated Pork Rind Powder: Click Here

 

AHDB Reports

 

More cattle forward in April than a year ago: Click Here

 

GB cattle prices hold strong: Click Here

 

Lamb prices broadly stable: Click Here

 

UK pork production higher in April on heavier weights: Click Here

 

Ukrainian War Updates

 

To keep up to date with AHDB’s Market impact of Ukraine conflict: Click Here

 

We also found this article on Rabobank: The Russia-Ukraine War’s Impact on Food & Agri: What Oceania’s Food & Agri Chain Has To Plan For: Click Here

 

Extract: Meat and dairy: Animal protein sectors are indirectly impacted through higher input costs from feed, fertilizers, and energy. Neither Russia nor Ukraine is a major importer or exporter of pork, beef, poultry, or dairy, so global trade flows of animal protein have not been disrupted anywhere close to the magnitude of grain trade disruptions. However, elevated costs will also be felt in Oceania’s livestock industry.

 

IGD Economics Bulletin – Friday 13th May 2022: Click Here

 

This week’s topics cover:

  • Food labelling

  • Fertiliser issues

  • Northern Ireland protocol uncertainty

  • Queen’s Speech

  • Economic activity declines

  • Food and drink exports recovering

 

We also attended IGD’s Eating out webinar: “a new world of challenges and opportunities” to understand the forecasted value of the market by sector and the trends and innovations that are driving growth.

 

To hear a recording and download the slides: Click Here

 

UK January pork outlook – review

 

In January AHDB published an outlook for the UK Pig sector: Click Here

 

Duncan Wyatt, Lead Analyst for Red Meat at AHDB has taken another look at it, to see how it’s fairing against more recently available information.

 

To read his appraisal of the market: Click Here

 

The main points from the pork outlook were:

  • A contraction in the breeding herd is expected, leading to a 2% fall in UK pig meat production, weighted towards the second half of 2022

  • Export markets remain challenging, with Chinese demand slowing and a weak EU market. However, trade may increase again year-on-year as new trading conditions with the EU become the norm for UK exporters

  • UK demand is expected to weaken slightly, although falling production, recovering foodservice demand, and increased exports could all support import levels, particularly in the second half of 2022

And Finally…

 

Beyond Meat sticking to its strategy despite continuing losses: Click Here

 

Beyond Meat, Inc. recorded a loss of $182 million during fiscal 2021, ended Dec. 31, on sales of $465 million. The string of significant losses continued into fiscal 2022, with the meat alternative maker announcing a loss of $101 million during the first quarter ended April 2 on sales of $110 million.

 

Compared to a year ago, the quarterly results are much worse. Beyond Meat recorded a loss of $27 million on sales of $108 million.

 

Despite the continuing negative results, Ethan Brown, president and chief executive officer, offered a defence of Beyond Meat’s go-to-market strategy during a May 11 conference call with securities analysts to discuss the quarterly results.

 

“Do investors want us to run the business at a smaller level and focus on maximizing margins, let’s say, on our retail burger, or do we continue to make decisions that are going to create the longest-term value for the investor and a decision like this (the introduction of plant-based jerky) is going to do that,” he said. “Simultaneously, we’re getting ready for launches for strategics in other parts of the world. There’s just a lot going on.

 

“And maybe there are some people that that’s not the right approach. But that’s the approach we’re taking that will create the longest-term value and it’s very consistent with the goal that we set out to do when we went public, and we’ll continue to do that.”

MORE THAN EVER PLEASE STAY SAFE – STAY WELL

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9th May

Please circulate this update to all relevant staff within your business.

Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report. 

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

Click here for the current EU Poultry Dashboard for Week 17 2022

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

AHDB Reports

 

  • UK beef exports continue strongly in February Click Here

 

  • Young bulls: slaughter trends and future supplies? Click Here

 

 

  • South Korean pig meat imports recover after COVID Click Here

 

In case you missed it: AHDB have also published their Red Meat Retail Dashboard for May 2022

 

 

 

 

Sustainability in the Supply Chain – Stories from Across the World

 

This week we are looking at Sustainable Chicken Farming in Australia.

 

The Australian Chicken Meat Federation (ACMF) published a blog, How Sustainable is chicken farming: Click Here

 

“Even better, the use of chicken litter as fertiliser reduces the amount of artificial or inorganic fertilisers, like urea and superphosphate (which require significant amounts of energy to produce), that need to be used across Australia to produce a diverse range of other food products and it also contributes valuable organic matter to soils.  Chicken litter is therefore not a waste product… it’s a valuable resource used in the production chain of other crops and foods.

 

At the chicken processing plant, there is virtually no waste either! As a rough guide, a bit over two thirds of the weight of the live chicken that leaves the farm ends up in products for human consumption. What doesn’t end up in products for human consumption mostly ends up in a range of rendered or fresh products used in animal and pet foods.”

 

The ACMF have also published their view, supported by research including some from Defra and Cranfield University about the environmental impact of chicken farming: Click Here

 

In a report from the Australian Government, published 10 years ago in 2012: Using Life Cycle Assessment to Quantify the Environmental Impact of Chicken Meat Production Click Here it says

 

“The chicken meat industry in Australia is dominated by vertically integrated, company-based supply chains with modern, efficient production systems. In addition to constantly improving traditional indicators of production efficiency, the industry is motivated to produce an ecologically efficient and sustainable product.

 

In line with national environmental priorities, the chicken meat industry is seeking to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reliance on fossil fuels for energy and water use in production. However, to date, these areas have not been thoroughly investigated for the chicken meat supply chain. At the industry level, estimation of emissions and resource usage is the first step towards benchmarking performance and enabling industry-wide improvement.”

 

The report then went on to make some recommendations (page 14) which no doubt over the last 10 years have been addressed.

 

So, what of the consumer facing messages for Australian Chicken.

 

Coles Supermarkets: At Coles, we believe chickens should be raised to RSPCA standards. It’s why all our Coles Own Brand fresh chicken isn’t just 100% Aussie, it’s raised on RSPCA Approved farms.

 

To read more: Click Here

 

Australia’s other main supermarket chain, Woolworths cover sustainability and animal welfare on their corporate site: Click Here. Like Coles, they too are committed to RSPCA Chicken.

 

This initiative caught our eye though we felt that the whole page, which covers, all meat & poultry, is well worth a quick read.

 

We launched our annual Woolworths Animal Welfare Horizons Fund. Its purpose is to help support research and development for our farmers and suppliers to address welfare opportunities, challenges, projects, and initiatives. The fund assists suppliers in tackling issues associated with animal welfare and with the ultimate goal of having a positive effect on the animals within the supply chain.  The fund promotes the importance of animal welfare downstream of the supply chain, benefiting our farmers and their animals directly.

 

Being a little nerdish when it comes to supermarkets, take a look at the Chicken Range sold by Woolworths: Click Here

 

Looking across the foodservice suppliers few talked about sustainability. Typical of the type wholesale poultry website is Farmer Joes: Click Here

 

Hybu Cig Cymru – Market Update

Sheep prices


For the week ending 30 April, the combined average prime lamb liveweight SQQ at auction markets in Wales increased by 1.6p to stand at 288.6p/kg. The price gap between this year and last stands at 30.3p, but is 48p higher than the 5-year average for this period. The number of Old Season Lambs coming forward is still strong when compared to the same week last year.

Cattle prices


Prime cattle prices continue to record week-on-week price increases. The cull cow average also continues to strengthen. For the fifth consecutive week, the average stands over £1/kg higher than the 5-year average. Industry reports suggest robust demand for cull cows from EU export markets is providing support to prices.  

 

For the HCC Weekly Price Data, please see page 16 of todays Market Update Click Here

The big news, in brief: Chicken’s not so cheap as prices reach “crazy” levels

 

It is said that no chicken ever dies of old age, but the UK’s poultry sector is fighting for its life. Input costs like water, labour, energy and feed are all rising. Combine that with trade barriers, shipping delays and a skills shortage, and it’s a recipe for disaster – unless costs can be passed on. 

 

To read the full article which was published on footprint media: Click Here

 

Rabobank Commentary: Foodservice Update Q2 2022: Foodservice in Troubled Times - Impact of the War in Ukraine Click Here

 

This is a special edition focusing on the impact that the war in Ukraine may have on the foodservice industry in the immediate and the longer term. Food and energy prices were already rising before the war began, and this conflict has amplified the trend, making clear that high prices will not revert any time soon. 

 

Also, foreign brands operating in Russia are exposed to reputational risks, which might have consequences in long term strategies.

 

The consequences will differ, depending on the market and type of business. 

 

Firstly, the operating context before the war was different: Some markets and operators were enjoying solid trading, while others were just exiting lockdowns. 

 

Moreover, input challenges were affecting some more than others. 

 

Secondly, some operators enhanced their efficiencies significantly over the past two years, but others were still struggling to overcome the impact of Covid-19 on their finances and operations.

 

Operators with activities in Russia and Ukraine have suffered the first and most direct impact. Most brand owners with activities in Russia wanted to leave the country, but for some, it hasn’t been entirely possible. 

 

However, economic losses may be less relevant than reputational risks. From a strategic perspective, the situation has highlighted the relevance of geopolitical risks in international expansion, and it may reshape future strategies.

 

The war is adding to the already severe input cost pressures, affecting energy and food prices (which in turn affect almost everything). Availability may also be an issue for certain products, with Europe more exposed to such pressures than the US or China. 

 

Disposable income is also undermined, as inflation outpaces revenue growth, hitting low-income households particularly hard. In the short term, spending is somewhat protected by pent-up demand, low unemployment, and accumulated savings, but these will not last forever, and demand may soften further if the economic situation deteriorates into a recession. T

 

he war is also hitting capital markets, reflecting increased uncertainties related to returns and the terms of payback.

 

So far, restaurant operators in most countries have been increasing their selling prices. Going forward, the challenge for foodservice is deciding when to take on price increases and when to hold, absorbing prices in the form of reduced margins in the hope of maintaining revenue growth and gaining/retaining market share.

 

With all this in mind, we expect low-ticket operators such as quick-service restaurants (QSR) to be the most resilient. Their business models are geared toward efficiency, and their lower prices help them benefit from consumers trading down. And chains, which dominate the segment, have come out of the pandemic with stronger operations and finances than their competitors. 

 

China is not immune to the global context, but it has its own challenges. The strict ‘zero-Covid’ policy and full lockdowns in key cities like Shanghai not only hurt foodservice consumption, they also lead to disruption in production and supply chains.

 

IGD Weekly Economic Update – 5th May 2022: Click Here

 

This week’s topics cover:

 

  • Shopper confidence remains very low

 

  • Inflation expectations increase

 

  • Northern Ireland protocol uncertainty

 

REMINDER

 

For more insight on the numbers and the challenges and opportunities by sector, IGD invites journalists, manufacturers, wholesalers and operators to attend an exclusive free webinar: Eating out: a new world of challenges and opportunities, Wednesday 11 May 2022, 11:00 BST. 

 

To reserve your place: Click Here

MORE THAN EVER PLEASE STAY SAFE – STAY WELL

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2nd May

Please circulate this update to all relevant staff within your business.

Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report. 

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

Click here for the current EU Poultry Dashboard for Week 16 2022

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

Behavioural Research

 

Likeliness to consume meat substitutes Click Here

 

GERMANY, Bonn. Researchers at the University of Bonn found that environmental concerns are not linked to the likeliness of consuming meat substitutes. In their study, consumers were rather driven by health concerns and a critical attitude towards factory farming.

 

In the quantitative online study published in the journal Food Quality and Preference, over 400 people between the ages of 17 and 86 were asked about their views on climate change, agriculture and health topics and their attitude towards meat substitutes and consumption patterns

 

Highlights:

 

  • The behavioural model explains almost 70% of the variance of the intention to eat meat alternatives.

 

  • Attitude is the main predictor for the intention to eat meat alternatives.

 

  • Health concerns significantly impact the intention to eat meat alternatives.

 

  • Animal welfare concerns influence the intention to eat meat alternatives via attitude.

 

  • Environmental concerns do not affect the intention to eat meat alternatives.

 

To read the full report: Click Here

 

Sustainability in the Supply Chain – Stories from Across the World - Uruguay

 

This week we are looking at Beef in Uruguay and begin with an article published in October 2021: Uruguay’s path to a carbon-neutral economy: Click Here

 

“Uruguay must establish itself as a natural food producer and an environmentally responsible country, and it must be able to demonstrate this. I call this ‘giving back’ the environmental component of the ‘Natural Uruguay’ brand,” Minister of the Environment, Adrián Peña, says. “There are measurements [for soil carbon], but they are disorganised. We have to organise all this so that we can then start to certify what the world is asking for.”

 

Amid opposition, for example, to beef from environmentalists, Uruguayan producers warn that it is a great challenge to improve management and rotation of pastures, and “they are now concerned about this issue after recent episodes in which production has been questioned,” says Peña.

 

The large Uruguayan beef processor BPU website: Click Here has a small section on Sustainability: Click Here

 

We also had a look at supermarkets in Uruguay and see that the French business Group Casino have a significant presence in the country: Click Here

 

Looking at their on-line shopping platform from the Casino brand Géant: Click Here

 

On the butchery page: Click Here we noticed some of the wording around their consumer messaging:

 

• Wide steak Feed Lot matured under vacuum

 

• Wide steak Feed Lot matured

 

These are just 2 examples of the use of the production method (feed lot) which they are happy to promote. Other beef was marketed as grass fed

 

Wide steak Feed Lot matured under vacuum was on the website at 799.00kg Uruguayan Peso which is £15.60kg

 

Wide steak Feed Lot matured was on the website at 659.00kg Uruguayan Peso which is £12.87kg

 

They also promoted some of the foods as being ‘beneficial’ and carried the statement below

 

Beneficial: They are various traditional foods that enrich our diet because they provide different elements very important for the proper functioning of the body. For example: legumes (beans, lentils), nuts (walnuts, hazelnuts, almonds), seeds (flax, sesame), skinless chicken, lean red meats, fish, baked goods and rotisserie. They have vitamins, minerals, fibers, good quality fats and other substances such as phytochemicals and antioxidants that are ideal to complement healthy lifestyles.

 

To see an example of this in relation to beef: Click Here

 

AHDB Updates

 

Deadweight cattle dearer again: Click Here

 

Lamb prices strengthen slightly: Click Here

 

Pork cost of production continuing to rise: Click Here

 

Hybu Cig Cymru (HCC) Updates

 

Welsh Government figures show how farm incomes in Wales for 2020-21 were forecast to have increased for cattle and sheep farms in both less favoured areas (LFA) and in lowland areas in Wales. But how hard will the impact of increasing inflation and costs hit the red meat sector over the coming months? 

 

To read HCC's latest Market Bulletin for a detailed analysis: Click Here

 

HCC have published a new report on global supply patterns in the beef and sheep sectors. 

 

With international tensions, rising inflation and changing consumer behaviour as Covid restrictions ease all causing change in the market, it's hoped that this report - part of HCC's new 'Between the Lines' market insight series - will help farmers and processors to evaluate how global trends could impact on their businesses.

 

To read the report: Click Here

MORE THAN EVER PLEASE STAY SAFE – STAY WELL

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25th April

Please circulate this update to all relevant staff within your business.

Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report. 

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

Click here for the current EU Poultry Dashboard for Week 15 2022

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

Five takeaways from Tesco's stellar results

 

As Tesco releases its annual results, IGD’s senior retail analyst Nick Gladding shares his initial thoughts on today’s numbers and what they tell us about the direction of travel at the UK market leader: Click Here

 

The Russia-Ukraine War’s Impact on Global Fertilizer Markets

 

Higher fertilizer prices and/or a shortage of fertilizer supply resulting from the war in Ukraine will not have an immediate impact on food prices and/or food production. Currently, the fertilizer market in the northern hemisphere is relatively quiet. All transoceanic flows for the upcoming northern hemisphere spring season have already taken place, and movements are now primarily at the local level: from the import ports and/or domestic production locations to farm fields.

 

To Read this report from Rabobank in full: Click Here

 

Sustainability in the Supply Chain – Stories from Across the World

 

This is a new section to the AIMS Market Update Report in which, each week, we will look at a business somewhere in the world and how they are addressing sustainability in their red meat or poultry supply chain.

 

This week… From Australia: Retail giant launches own carbon-neutral beef range

 

Retail giant, Coles, teamed up with Australian farms across Victoria and New South Wales to produce a certified carbon-neutral beef range from paddock to shelf according to the Australian Government’s Climate Active Carbon Neutral Standard.

 

Coles CEO Steven Cain said the launch of Coles Finest carbon-neutral beef was a great example of Coles working with suppliers to achieve better sustainability outcomes and added, “Coles Finest Certified Carbon Neutral Beef is a testament to the hard work of our beef producers and their commitment to sustainable practices, and we’re thrilled that they’re taking this important step with us.”

 

To read the full report: Click Here

 

For more information on Coles and their Graze Beef brand: Click Here

 

And for their ‘Better Together: Together to Zero’ Campaign: Click Here

 

A war-triggered food crisis needs our immediate attention

 

This interesting article published on the FT website and promoted by Bayer is well worth a few minutes to read: Click Here

 

British butchers “first choice” for sustainability-minded consumers, NCB survey finds

 

We also saw this on the Meat Management webpage

 

Some of the survey’s findings include:

 

  • 87% of respondents prioritise local produce in their shops

 

  • Six out of 10 prefer to sell grass fed, organic or free-range meat

 

  • 38% will buy animals live direct from market for full traceability

 

  • Two-thirds rely on a small local abattoir to supply their meat

 

To read the Meat Management coverage: Click Here 

 

Hybu Cig Cymru (HCC) Weekly Update

HCC's work promoting the positive record of Welsh farming in terms of sustainability continues. Two items have been featured in the trade press recently, on the importance of food security, and on positive case studies on what's happening on farm in Wales. These articles reflect HCC's communications to policy-makers and the wider public.
The new Between the Lines Report on global beef and sheep supply continues to be discussed in the media.
Next week will see the Butchers Shop of the Year awards in Birmingham, with several Welsh finalists. You can read about them herehere and here!

 

Sheep prices
The combined average prime lamb liveweight SQQ at auction markets in Wales recorded a slight decline on the week, while remaining at historically strong levels. Cull ewe prices recorded yet another week-on-week price increase of £1.60 to an average of £99.50/head, as the Ramadan festival continues to provide support to the sheep meat market. These trends were discussed on Radio Cymrurecently by HCC’s Industry Development and Relations Manager John Richards.

Cattle prices
Deadweight cattle prices in England and Wales continue to recorded week-on-week price increases. Throughput at auction was down 13% on last week

 

Price information is available on page 20 Click here 

 

IGD - Economics bulletin 22 April - Click Here

 

This weeks IGD economic bulletin covers the following:

 

  • The Ukraine Crisis – Supply implications

 

  • UK growth forecast cut

 

  • COVID-19 restrictions relaxation

Click Here to return to Members Area

18th April

Please circulate this update to all relevant staff within your business.

Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report. 

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

Click here for the current EU Poultry Dashboard for Week 14 2022

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

IGD Economics Bulletin – 14th April

 

This week’s economic bulletin covers:

 

  • Inflation reaches a new high

 

  • Cost of living squeeze

 

  • Economic growth slows

 

  • Availability concerns

 

  • Further supply disruption

 

To read the bulletin: Click Here

 

Rabobank Podcast: Could High Fertiliser Prices Create Food Shortages?

 

Global fertiliser prices have bounced again, and this time it’s not just farmers who are worried. Consumers too are starting to wonder what will this mean for food prices and availability. Senior Commodities Analyst Cheryl Kalisch Gordon is joined by Wes Lefroy, Senior Farm Inputs Analyst, to examine the relationship between fertiliser prices, crop production, and availability.

 

To play the podcast: Click Here

 

Global Pork Quarterly Q2 2022: Inflationary Pressure Renews Industry Focus on Efficiency and Slows Growth Click Here

 

Producers’ returns will be challenged by rising costs – including feed, energy, freight, herd health, and labour expenses. Production growth is expected to slow, as is global trade. Uncertainty remains regarding how consumers will respond once higher costs are passed on to them.

 

Higher feed and energy costs are expected to pressure margins. A disappointing South American crop and Black Sea grain export uncertainty are exacerbating an already tight global feed supply, increasing feed costs 20% YOY. Producers will focus on efficiencies and limit herd growth, with expected declines in financially stressed regions including the UK, Germany, and Southeast Asia. 

 

Consumer demand remains mixed. Pork sales remain brisk in the US and South Korea, which have emerged from pandemic restrictions, while sales have lagged in countries like China, Japan, and Mexico, which are still struggling with Covid-19-related dining restrictions and weaker economic growth. 

 

We expect higher-cost pork to limit 2H 2022 demand, despite improved in-home consumption and high-cost protein alternatives. 

 

The global pork trade in 2022 is expected to decline, driven by weaker economic trends and ample pork supply. Slower 1H 2022 exports will likely continue, as buyers remain cautious due to global economic uncertainty and higher-cost pork, unless import markets find themselves short.

 

AHDB Updates

 

Cull cows break 350p/kg deadweight Click Here

 

UK lamb kill rises Click Here

 

SPP rise still yet to match cost of production Click Here

 

Hybu Cig Cymru – Weekly Update

 

This week has seen the launch of HCC's new report on global supply patterns in the beef and sheep sectors: Click Here

 

With international tensions, rising inflation and changing consumer behaviour as Covid restrictions ease all causing change in the market, it's hoped that this report - part of HCC's new 'Between the Lines' market insight series - will help farmers and processors evaluate how global trends could impact on their businesses.

Promotion in the leadup to Easter continues in both home and overseas markets, including last week where members of the HCC marketing team were at the family-focused Countrytastic event in the west of England. 

 

Sheep prices


The combined average prime lamb liveweight SQQ at auction markets in Wales increased for a fourth consecutive week to 279.2p/kg. Although this is 37.7p lower than 2021, the average remains strong when compared to the 5-year average. Following lower levels of lambs being processed at the end of last year, an increased number of lambs have come onto the market during Q1 of 2022 as anticipated, with March recording the highest figure for the corresponding month since 2018. March abattoir throughput figures show a significant increase over this period in 2021, with total sheep meat production around 12% up. 

 

For further insight: Click Here

Cattle prices


Deadweight cattle price trends in England and Wales continue to recorded week-on-week price increases. The cull cow average continues to accelerate closer to the prime cattle average, with the most recent average being 350.0p/kg. This is an increase of 12p on the week, and is only some 80p below the current steer average price. Prime cattle throughput in March was a little lower than previous years, but adult cattle somewhat higher.

 

The price data can be found on page 31 of todays AIMS Market Update Report Click here.

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11th April

Please circulate this update to all relevant staff within your business.

Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report. We have included price graphs for Week 52 2021 and Week 1 2022.

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

Click here for the current EU Poultry Dashboard for Week 13 2022

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

Red Meat Retail Dashboard April 2022

 

AHDB have published their Red Meat Dashboards for April

 

 

 

 

HCC Market Report

 

Future consumers are likely to demand a consistently high quality, and that's the aim of our EU and Welsh Government funded Welsh Lamb Meat Quality Project: Click Here

 

This week, the Minister Lesley Griffiths visited one of the project farms in Powys to hear how the impact of lambs' diet, seasonality, processing and other factors have on nutrition and eating quality: Click Here

Have your say on HCC and the challenges facing the sector; give us 5 minutes of your time to complete our survey, and you could be the lucky winner of a £50 voucher to spend in your local butchers' shop: Click Here
 

Sheep prices


The combined average prime lamb liveweight SQQ at auction markets in Wales rose for a third consecutive week. Cull ewe prices at auction markets in Wales have continued to strengthen week-on-week, with the most recent average standing at £106.90/head. Supplies of Old Season Lambs appear to be plentiful compared to year-earlier levels.

Cattle prices


The average steer deadweight price rose by 7p on the previous week. 425.6p/kg is the highest average recorded in a number of years. The cull cow average continued to strengthen and recorded another significant increase of almost 8p on the week. The price gap between this year and last is now at its widest so far in 2022 at almost 71p, with the current price being over £1/kg higher than the 5-year average.  
 
Input costs – such as fertiliser, feed, and fuel – continue to rise, therefore putting pressure on the margins of producers.

 

For the liveweight and deadweight price report chart from HCC see slide 51 on the attached AIMS Market Update Report

 

Rabobank - Poultry Quarterly Q2 2022: Strong Market Conditions Continue, Despite Impact of War in Ukraine Click Here

 

Global poultry demand and trade will remain strong this year. The industry, however, will face challenges related to historic high cost inflation and logistic disruptions, which will especially impact low income countries.

 

In most regions, supply is relatively tight and prices are strong. The war in Ukraine has led to an increase of 20% to 40% in global grain prices, and the poultry industry will be challenged to pass on all of these higher costs to consumers. This will likely be possible in developed markets with high purchasing power, where supply is relatively tight, such as Europe, the US, and Japan.

 

There are, however, rising concerns in developing countries – for example, some countries in Africa, where food expenditure can represent one-third of household income and where the cost impact could be higher due to import dependence.

 

These sharply rising costs, together with lower purchasing power due to weaker growth and cost inflation, could challenge local food and poultry consumption and potentially lead to regional crisis situations.

 

Global trade is expected to remain strong in 2022, as all governments gradually implement ‘living with Covid-19’ strategies, lifting foodservice demand. Brazil, China, and Turkey are well-positioned to benefit from this situation and take over some share of exports from the EU and war-affected Ukraine. 

 

Russia will be affected by sanctions but could selectively benefit from its very competitive position. Global trade will be challenged by the ongoing inflation of transport costs as well as disruptions to logistics. 

 

Global poultry industries need a sharp focus on operations to offset higher costs and supply challenges – optimal procurement, product efficiency, and feed formulation will be vital. Avian influenza (AI) will remain a key challenge, but the pressure should ease in the northern hemisphere summer. 

 

From a global perspective, AI cases in regions like Europe will disrupt trade in hatching eggs, which could impact supply in importing countries, as occurred in 2020 and 2021. 

 

Rabobank - How Food Retailers Are Tackling Their Carbon Footprint Click Here

 

Food retailers across the globe are committing to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. These targets will have severe implications for the entire value chain.

 

  • Once the targets have been set, all kinds of stakeholders will demand transparency on progress. Food retailers will be under close scrutiny to meet their reduction targets.

 

  • Retailers will not be able to meet any net-zero targets without their suppliers. On average, less than 5% of food retailers’ GHG emissions are under their direct influence. Scope 3 (value chain) emissions account for more than 95% of their total emissions.

 

  • The vast majority of retailers’ Scope 3 emissions come from the products sold in their stores. Hence, many food retailers have started demanding that suppliers measure their footprint and set their own reduction strategies.

 

  • Retailers aim to achieve their targets by requiring or incentivizing supplier to set their own reduction targets, but also by actively collaborating with suppliers and nudging consumers. All of these strategies have implications for food retail suppliers.

 

IGD Economics Bulletin – 8th April 2022 - Click Here

 

This week’s topics cover:

 

  • Shopper confidence hits new record low

 

  • National Insurance rise

 

  • Labour shortages impacting food prices

 

  • HFSS guidance

 

  • Menu calorie labelling

 

  • New Energy Security Strategy

 

  • Climate change report

 

AHDB Updates

 

Cull cows £1/kg over the five-year average - Click Here

 

UK hide prices stable so far in 2022 - Click Here

 

Pork cost of production update - Click Here

 

Mexico pork production to continue to grow this year - Click Here

 

Irish beef producers still 5% below European average despite price surge Click Here

 

The chair of the Irish Creamery Milk Suppliers Association’s (ICMSA’s) livestock committee, Des Morrison has raised the question of why Irish producers are still getting 5% below the European average, despite a surge in beef prices.

 

As of the week ending on March 12, 2021, the European composite price went from €3.53/kg to €4.62/kg exclusive of VAT, representing a 22.9% increase compared to a 17.8% change from €3.57/kg to €4.45/kg in Ireland, both recorded over a twelve-month period, Morrison said.

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4th April

Please circulate this update to all relevant staff within your business.

Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report. We have included price graphs for Week 52 2021 and Week 1 2022.

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

Click here for the current EU Poultry Dashboard for Week 12 2022

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

Spotlight on Ready Meals – NOTE: This also contains information on Poultry

 

Ready meal growth driven by need for convenience Click Here

 

Consumers choosing convenient meals is now at a five year high. Over the last year, spend on red meat preprepared meals was worth more than a billion pounds to retailers, with 260 million convenience meals eaten in January alone (Kantar).

 

NOTE: We have included the charts which accompany this report on pages 40 to 43 of the attached Weekly Market Update Report

 

Ready meals deliver boost to red meat sector Click Here

 

Sales of red meat pre-prepared meals have grown 2.4% in the last year, with the number of shoppers choosing convenient meals now at a five-year high

 

Convenience - the Added Value market for meat Click Here

 

In September 2020 AHDB’s published a consumer insight report Convenience – The Added Value Market For Meat: Click Here and in July 2021, Senior Retail Insights Manager, Kim Malley, gave a video presentation Added Value Opportunities in Meat: Click Here

 

AHDB Reports

 

Global beef export prices rising, driven by US demand for VL beef  Click Here

 

Cattle prices riding high Click Here

 

Liveweight lamb prices tick up again Click Here

 

IGD Economics bulletin 1st April Click Here

 

This week’s bulletin looks at: 

 

  • The Ukraine Crisis – supply implications

 

  • Updated guidance for farmers

 

  • Changes to EU-GB imports and exports

 

  • Extended Producer Responsibility delay

 

  • COVID-19 restrictions relaxation

 

  • P&O ferries supply disruption

 

  • Energy price cap lifted

 

Don’t Forget: IGD’s Free Conflict compounds cost of living crisis webinar – Wednesday 27th April at 11:00: To register for a place: Click Here

Mintel Monthly Insights

 

There are two insights which caught our eye:

 

1. The future of food production - Click Here

 

Mintel Senior Trends Consultant Richard Cope discusses how the conflict in Ukraine is confronting consumers with political and environmental realities on food production over-dependence on fossil fuels and imports

 

2. Podcast: The What and the Why behind a consumer trend - Click Here

 

Discover the science and art of consumer trend forecasting with a discussion about how trends are defined, how new trends are identified and the value of understanding consumer trends

MORE THAN EVER PLEASE STAY SAFE – STAY WELL

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28th March

Please circulate this update to all relevant staff within your business.

Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report. We have included price graphs for Week 52 2021 and Week 1 2022.

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

Click here for the current EU Poultry Dashboard for Week 11 2022

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

Commission acts for global food security and for supporting EU farmers and consumers Click Here

 

The European Commission has presented a range of short-term and medium-term actions to enhance global food security and to support farmers and consumers in the EU in light of rising food prices and input costs, such as energy and fertilisers. 

 

AHDB Reports

 

The likely impact of inflationary pressure on British meat and dairy sales Click Here

 

Horizon blog: Talks commence on UK-Canada free trade deal Click Here

 

Cattle prices continue to rally strongly Click Here

 

How much beef did the EU trade in 2021? Click Here

 

EU sheep meat production ticks up in 2021 Click Here

Special Report from AgriBrieifing – The Russia – Ukraine Conflict and what it means for Agriculture

 

The volatile market conditions brought on by the Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing destabilization throughout the global supply chain. Trade sanctions and disruptions to grain production mean increased biofuel and feed costs--causing reverberations throughout agriculture markets. 

 

AgriBriefing has prepared a special report (Click here) with contributions from its intelligence services Stratégie Grains, Feedinfo and Urner Barry, to provide insight into how this conflict is impacting the entire food supply chain.

 

IGD Economics bulletin 25th March Click Here

 

This week’s economic bulletin covers the following:

 

  • Chancellor unveils Spring Statement - Click Here

 

 

  • P&O ferries supply disruption

 

  • The Ukraine Crisis – supply implications Click Here

 

  • Free range egg labelling

 

  • Economics and fiscal outlook report, March 2022 - Click Here

 

The Food People Blog

 

The Rising Cost Of Living Click Here

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21st March

Please circulate this update to all relevant staff within your business.

Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report. We have included price graphs for Week 52 2021 and Week 1 2022.

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

Click here for the current EU Poultry Dashboard for Week 10 2022

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

AHDB Reports

 

Cull cow prices up, up and away Click Here

 

Slow trade for UK beef in January Click Here

 

UK lamb exports attempt to recover from Brexit lows Click Here

 

New year, same challenges for UK pork trade Click Here

 

Rabobank - Talking Points: Catching Up With Big Food Companies

 

Here are four themes that emerged from the recent (online) get-together at the Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY) conference that I believe are worth taking note of:

 

1) We’re Back! – Companies Were Keen To Discuss How Much Stronger They Have Become

 

2) The Portfolio Reformation – The Core Is Strong But Interest in M&A Remains

 

3) Demand Is Holding Up – Consumers Are Stomaching Higher Prices, for Now

 

4)  The Covid Booster Shots – Helping To Keep Demand Elevated

 

Click here for a full copy of the report

IGD: Economics bulletin Friday 18th March Click Here

 

This week’s topics cover:

  • The Ukraine Crisis – supply implications

  • Inflation and interest rates

  • Falling real wages

  • Further supply disruption

  • Changes to EU-GB imports and exports

 

We also saw this on the IGD website Sainsbury's to transform food-to-go offer, expand The Restaurant Hub Click Here

 

Sainsbury’s has announced it will be expanding its Restaurant Hub format to 30 more stores this year following the success of the concept at its Selly Oak store.

 

While 30 are planned for this year, Sainsbury’s will accelerate the roll out of the format next year if it remains popular with customers.

 

Sainsbury’s will also be extending its partnership with Starbucks, opening another 30 more sites in its stores over the next 12 months, to bring the total to 60.

 

Whilst putting branded coffee shops into stores is nothing new Sainsbury’s Restaurant Hub of high street brands such as Ed’s Easy Diner, Gourmet Burger Kitchen and Slim Chickens with the options of Eat In, Take Out or Home Delivery (Deliveroo, Uber Eats and Just Eat) is.

 

According to IGD the Restaurant Hub in the Selly Oak store appears to have been hugely successful so far and the roll out of the concept is one of the most recent exciting developments in food-to-go in large stores in the UK.

MORE THAN EVER PLEASE STAY SAFE – STAY WELL

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14th March

Please circulate this update to all relevant staff within your business.

Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report. We have included price graphs for Week 52 2021 and Week 1 2022.

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

Click here for the current EU Poultry Dashboard for Week 9 2022

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

Rabobank Podcast: What the War in Ukraine Means for Food

 

The podcast to discusses what might happen in the future, with a decoupled world as a likely scenario.

 

To listen to the podcast: Click Here

 

Market impact of Ukraine conflict

 

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, market volatility has significantly increased.

 

Here AHDB have all the latest data, analysis and insight from our industry experts to help guide you through market movements and provide a clear, impartial view on what it all means. 

 

They also include the most relevant AHDB tools and resources that can help you measure and mitigate the impact on your own business.

 

We suggest that you bookmark this page: Click Here

 

Russia-Ukraine War's Impact on Global Logistics – Rabobank Report

 

“The first eight weeks of 2022 brought some good news to the global Food & Agribusiness (F&A) supply chains – a gradual decline in container rates and small improvements in the congestion at major ports and inland terminals. 

 

Yet the Russia-Ukraine war, that started on February 24, might have just reversed the direction of change. This article will discuss the immediate consequences and our initial views of the subsequent impact on global logistics.”

 

To read this report from Rabobank, in full: Click Here

 

AHDB Horizon Newsletter Click Here

 

This month’s includes an article on opportunities for Lamb in the USA and the launch of the 

 

Having left the EU, farmers and growers are now looking at the future changes in domestic policy and trading relationships. 

 

Trade and Policy Website: Explore the latest information and analysis on how this will affect farming businesses at our new trade and policy webpage: Click Here

 

HCC Market Update

 

In terms of the markets, it's unlikely that the current situation in Ukraine will have an immediate effect on livestock prices. However it may well put additional pressure on already high energy and input costs for farmers and processors, and the rising cost of living may yet impact on consumer behaviour.

Sheep prices


Following a significant increase the previous week, the combined average prime lamb liveweight SQQ at auction markets in Wales fell by 8p on the week. The average however remains significantly higher (almost 36p) than the 5-year average. The throughput of old season lambs in Wales remained stable on the week but is strong for this time of year – 6% higher than year-earlier levels. Cull ewe prices at auction markets in Wales recorded their 4th consecutive week of price increases. Prices are following seasonal trends and are strengthening as we enter Spring, and demand for mutton begins to pick up as we near the start of Ramadan (01/04/2022).

Cattle prices


Deadweight cattle prices rose during the most recent week. The cull cow average recorded a significant increase of 11.7p on the week, and as a result crossed the £3.00/kilo mark for the first time in a number of years.

 

IGD Economics Bulletin – Friday 11th March - Click Here

 

Topic this week cover:

 

  • The Ukraine crisis - inflationary impact

 

  • Volatile energy prices

 

  • Falling living standards

 

  • Delay to Extended Producer Responsibility

 

  • EU imports call for evidence

 

  • Availability concerns decline

MORE THAN EVER PLEASE STAY SAFE – STAY WELL

Click Here to return to Members Area

7th March

Please circulate this update to all relevant staff within your business.

Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report. We have included price graphs for Week 52 2021 and Week 1 2022.

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

Click here for the current EU Poultry Dashboard for Week 8 2022

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

AHDB Reports

 

Will the UK food-to-go market get back to growth post pandemic? Click Here

 

How much beef did South America export in 2021? Click Here

 

AHDB Red meat retail dashboard – Data to 20th February 2022

 

Beef: Click Here

 

Lamb: Click Here

 

Pork: Click Here

 

Fuel Prices

 

We have included a graph on the attached slide deck (page 40) showing how the markets have reacted following the recent invasion in Ukraine. 

 

With fighting and further sanctions expected to intensify over the coming days it is a real concern for all on so many levels. Base prices for wholesale costs alone have topped 30p/kWh.

 

Some suppliers have also removed renewal offers from customers meaning they either have to change supplier or move onto a variable tariff, currently reaching highs between 70p/kWh and 90p/kWh.

 

AIMS Supplier Member, Consider Energy, are running daily workshops for their customers to give advice on both domestic and commercial energy. If any members would like to have an open chat about the best movements, please do get in with Adam Thompson.

 

Office: 01484 810233

Direct: 01484 905251

Mobile: 07900 942682

Email: adam@considerenergy.co.uk

Web: www.considerenergy.co.uk

 

AIMS Update LIVE Thursday 10th March 2022 - RED DIESEL – 14:00 to 15:00

 

Further to our discussions and correspondence (attached) with HMRC over members questions in relation to the changes to rebated fuel, 1st April 2022, HMRC have agreed to host an AIMS Members only webinar with Q&A session.

 

Please make a note in your diaries and try to be on the call. HMRC are unlikely to repeat the offer.

You're invited to join a Microsoft Teams meeting

Title: Tony Goodger's Teams Meeting
Time: 10 March 2022 14:00:00 Greenwich Mean Time

Join on your computer or mobile app
Click here to join the meeting

 

Feed Prices

 

Policy shifts considered as price rises continue: Grain market daily Click Here

 

Global grain prices have continued to rise due to the conflict in Ukraine, with UK and Paris wheat futures again reaching new records. In response to the rising prices, several countries are considering policy changes that would affect the world market.

 

Some of these changes are protectionist in nature, designed to shield domestic populations from rising food price inflation. These types of changes may provide relief in the country they’re implemented in. However, they may tighten supplies for the rest of the world and contribute to higher world prices overall.

 

We have included a graph (page 41) in the slide deck showing UK Feed Wheat Futures continued rise due to the conflict in Ukraine.

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