Market Reports

Beef Market Outlook January 2021

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Sheep Market Outlook January 2021

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Pig Meat Forecast January 2021

Brexit Commodity & Food Price Impact report HERE

AHDB Beef & Lamb May Update HERE

HSBC Quarterly Updates HERE

UK Beef Market insights - Urner Barry presentation 

HERE

2nd August

Please circulate this update to all relevant staff within your business.

Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report.

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

Click here for the current EU Poultry Dashboard for Week 29 2021

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

Red meat retail dashboard

 

The latest red meat retail data up to w/e 11th July 2021, is now available.

 

BeefClick Here

Lamb – Click Here

PorkClick Here

 

Food and You 2 - Wave 2 Click Here

 

Topics covered in the Food and You 2: Wave 2 report include:

 

  • Confidence in food safety, authenticity and the supply chain

  • Concerns about food

  • Food security

  • Eating out and takeaways

  • Food allergy, intolerance and other hypersensitivities

  • Eating at home

 

To read the full report: Click Here

 

A few of points from the report we found of interest were:

 

  • Respondents were asked to briefly explain what their concerns were about the food they eat. The most common concerns related to food production methods (23%), and food safety and hygiene (17%).

 

  • Almost 9 in 10 (89%) respondents were confident that the information on food labels is accurate

 

  • Over three quarters of respondents (77%) reported that they had confidence in the food supply chain. 

 

  • Respondents were more likely to report confidence in farmers (88%), shops and supermarkets (87%) than in takeaways (70%), and food delivery services (52%).

 

Agri Market Outlook: July 2021 Click Here

 

“With fodder in the shed and harvest set to gather pace, I can’t help feeling a degree of optimism right now. Whereas previous outlooks have flagged the uncertainty created by leaving the EU and the covid pandemic, it now feels like we’ve navigated some choppy waters, although it’s far from plain sailing ahead. Critically, we have seen the continuation of relatively strong prices across the farming sectors over recent months. Add all that together, and it’s no wonder that there’s an air of cautious optimism at the agricultural events and meetings that I’ve attended in the last few weeks.” Writes Phil Bicknell in the half-yearly Agri-Market Outlook Report.

 

There are sector specific reports which should be of interest to members:

 

BeefClick Here

LambClick Here

PorkClick Here

DairyClick Here

CerealsClick Here

 

Market News from Mintec

 

High EU chicken prices despite recovery from Avian Influenza

 

Polish poultry breeders are halfway through their restocking phase after recovering from the Avian Influenza (AI) outbreak. According to market participants, it would take time for the supply chain to come back to normal as this outbreak was the worst AI outbreak ever seen. As a result, Mintec price for EU chicken continues to rise by 4% q-o-q and 11% y-o-y to reach EUR 2/kg on 7th July 2021.

 

EU 2021 pork production to increase marginally

 

EU pork production is expected to slightly accelerate in 2021, with an annual growth of +1.7% with heavier weight (+1kg annually on a five-year average) animals available for slaughter. Additional production in Belgium, Denmark, Spain, France, Italy and Poland should largely compensate for the decreases in Germany due to African Swine Fever (-3% y-o-y). The strongest production increase is projected in Denmark, with lower live exports to Germany and a relatively high number of young pigs in 2020.

 

Weak pork demand from China

 

Spain has been one of the largest EU exporters to the Chinese market. However, ample domestic supplies in China amid African Swine Fever (ASF) related mass culling have reduced Chinese pork demand for international produce. As a result, Mintec pork price in Spain declined 9% to reach EUR 1.7/kg between 23rd June and 14th July. Nevertheless, high demand for cuts such as legs and ribs due to barbecue cooking has prevented pork (deadweight) prices from falling further.

 

Beef cut prices rise with the reopening of restaurants

 

Demand for beef cuts such as fillet and rib eye rose sharply in early July, driven by the reopening of the foodservice sector and the easing of the lockdown in the UK. According to market experts, demand is far out-stripping supply for these product lines, which require extra processing. The beef supplies have been reduced recently, with workers at meat processing plants testing positive or asked to self-isolate. In the four weeks ending 14th July, Mintec price for beef rib eye in the UK increased 2.6% m-o-m and 21.8% q-o-q to reach GBP 19.5/kg. Similarly, beef fillet price rose to GBP 24.9/kg, up 3.7% m-o-m and 19.7% q-o-q during the same period.

 

EU lamb prices to stay firm in H2-2021

 

EU lamb production is estimated to be stable in 2021 as the structural decline of the EU flock size will counterbalance increases in slaughtering in 2021. Also, the reopening of foodservices should have a positive effect on the demand in the second half of 2021. As a result, the EU lamb price is likely to be stronger in Q4. Mintec price for EU lamb in the first week of July reached EUR 6.2/kg, up 6.6% q-o-q and 9.5% y-o-y.

Everyone at AIMS is here to support any members, please email if you have any questions.

 

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26th July

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Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report.

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

Click here for the current EU Poultry Dashboard for Week 27 2021

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

Articles from AHDB

 

Chinese pork production to bounce back while beef supplies in South America remain tight Click Here

 

Outlook to 2030: Popularity of poultry continues to increase Click Here

 

Opportunities for outdoor pork in retail Click Here

 

Prices of goods rise, but not for food Click Here

 

New From AHDB – Foodservice Dashboards

 

Understanding how foodservice sales are changing can help you to better understand your end market. We publish quarterly updates on GB foodservice performance of beef, lamb and pork. This covers dine in, on the go, takeaway and delivery. Data is AHDB estimates based on Kantar out of home data.

 

BEEF Click Here

 

LAMB Click Here

 

PORK Click Here

 

The dashboards will be updated quarterly.

 

To register to receive email  updates from AHDB: Click Here

 

We have a had a quick look through the dashboards and the area which stands out is that all three of the red meats, and therefore it is probably safe to assume the same for chicken, are showing growth for Asian inspired cuisine. 

 

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19th July

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Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report.

 

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All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

Click here for the current EU Poultry Dashboard for Week 27 2021

 

NOTE: This weeks includes the monthly deadweight prices for beef and lamb. In addition we have monthly deadweight information now for EU and US chicken which can be found on slides 50 and 51. 

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest ADHB Weekly SPP and Weaner Prices: Click Here

 

To read the latest AHDB APP Prices: Click Here

 

How can brands and advertisers respond to the HFSS restrictions? Click Here

 

A short report from Kantar looks at restrictions on promoting HFSS products coming into force next year, and discusses that brands need to rethink how to engage consumers to support sales, penetration, and brand equity.

 

This week’s AHDB Reports

 

UK beef production lower in June - Click Here

 

Eid supports lamb prices - Click Here

 

Consumer attitudes to pasture reared livestock - Click Here

 

Consumer awareness of regenerative agriculture - Click Here

 

What does the EU Short-Term Outlook say about the meat and poultry markets?

 

The EU Commission has recently published its Short Term Outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2021: Click Here

 

EU beef production is expected to decrease in 2021, mainly due to a reduction of cow herd in the beef and dairy sector combined with lower demand from food services.

 

Exports to high-value markets should continue to increase thanks to recent trade agreements (e.g. Canada, Japan) and while other destinations show a small decline, despite the shortage of beef at world level. 

 

EU pigmeat production is expected to continue increasing in 2021, as additional production in some EU countries more than compensated the decrease due to ASF in DE. Although the exports to UK are strongly reduced, overall EU pigmeat exports should grow again in 2021. 

 

As AI hits major EU poultry producers including PL, EU production is expected to decrease in 2021. Demand is not expected to rebound sharply with the reopening of foodservices and overall exports should decrease. 

 

Despite high prices, margins are under pressure because of high feed costs. The EU sheep meat market faces strong global and domestic supply shortages (EU production being stable), leading to relatively high prices. 

 

Exports from New Zealand are partly redirected to Asia, while facing at the same time higher shipping costs. The current trade situation between the EU and the UK adds downward pressure on exports and imports

 

NOTE: We have included a graph from the report showing the rise in the EU broiler price on slide 49 of the attached AIMS Market Report

 

Consumers Confused by Food-Related Emissions Click Here

 

Only around one in four (22%) people in the UK think agriculture contributes ‘a great deal’ to UK carbon emissions, while eating less meat and dairy is the least likely action to take place in the next few decades.

 

An online survey of just under 7,000 members of the UK public was carried out between September and October 2020 by BEIS and Defra.

 

The survey explored participants’ perceptions of climate change, net zero and different actions that could increase or decrease carbon emissions in the UK.

 

To read the full report: Click Here

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12th July

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Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report.

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

Click here for the current EU Poultry Dashboard for Week 26 2021

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the July edition of Beef & Lamb News: Click Here

 

AHDB Reports

 

Spanish sheep production steady Click Here

 

German pig herd continuing to decline Click Here

 

US pig herd smaller year-on-year in June Click Here

 

Insect feed could tackle climate and nature crisis Click Here

 

Using insects as animal feed could replace over half a million tonnes of soy from the UK food supply, according to WWF.

 

The future of feed report has been produced in association with among others ADAS and Tesco. To read the report: Click Here

 

China Food & Agribusiness Bimonthly July/August 2021 Click Here

 

We are unable to access the full report as we are not Rabobank clients.

 

Among the highlights in the executive summary are:

 

  • Animal Protein: While Chinese pork prices started to rebound from a deep decline, prices are expected to fluctuate before a rebound higher, due to the pressures of over-sized hogs and a high frozen pork inventory. Imports of pork and poultry will likely slow down further in the coming months, due to supply increases in the local market.

 

  • Dairy: Strong production growth and import growth have been the main theme during 1H 2021, and the market is expected to be more than well-stocked as demand normalizes. This could start to drive some destocking, resulting in weaker import demand in 2H 2021.

 

  • Consumer Foods: China’s foodservice sector grew by 26.6% YOY in May 2021, achieving value sales of CNY 381.6bn. This number is 5.1% higher than the pre-Covid May 2019 number, indicating a stable recovery pattern. Missfresh and Ding Dong Maicai Click Here the Chinese micro warehouse model of online fresh grocery players, are trimming IPO sizes due to growth pains.

 

US Food Retail: Where Did Consumers Go During Covid-19? Six Learnings From Spending Data Click Here

 

We are unable to access the full report as we are not Rabobank clients.

 

Among the highlights in the executive summary are:

 

1. Online is the big winner, but summer may bring a temporary halt. Recent data indicates a likely temporary halt to this expansion in Q2 2021, as cases drop, the economy reopens, and weather warms up.

 

2. Introducing the online discounter. Discount shoppers have adopted online groceries the most, as discount grocers lowered fees for delivery and hybrid services and rolled out other affordability measures to attract more price-sensitive consumers.

 

3. Online growth was driven by more orders, not higher order value. Online grocers benefit from a higher average transaction (basket) the most. But the average basket hasn’t grown during Covid, which has restricted further gains in cost optimization and profitability.

 

4. A tale of two extremes for premium & natural grocers. The premium & natural segment has been impacted by a major drop in traffic, as consumers opted for one-stop shops and traditional portfolios. However, the segment has expanded basket size the most among all brick-and-mortar retailers.

 

5. A second chance for meal kits? Transaction data indicates consumers have stuck to regular deliveries and consistently increased average spending throughout the pandemic year.

 

6. No major impact from macro and stimulus. We couldn’t correlate food retail spending with extreme macroeconomic volatility and the three stimulus packages. This contrasts with what happened on the foodservice side, which directly and positively correlated with stimulus release and economic recovery.

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5th July

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Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report.

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

Click here for the current EU Poultry Dashboard for Week 25 2021

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

Tighter supplies constrain Irish cattle kill

 

The number of Irish cattle slaughtered between January and May (inclusive) was 706,900 head, down 6% on the same period last year, according to Central Statistics Office Ireland reports AHDB Analyst, Hannah Clarke. 

 

To read the full article: Click Here

 

Organic pig and sheep numbers fall

 

The latest figures from Defra Click Here show a fall in the number of organically farmed pigs and sheep in the UK in 2020. 

 

This continues a trend from the previous two years. 

 

Conversely, cattle numbers were stable and poultry numbers have continued to rise. 

 

Overall, organic production remains a niche area in UK livestock production. To read the full report from AHDB Analyst Bethan Wilkins: Click Here

 

NOTE: We have turned the Defra numbers into graphs. These are slides 36 to 40 on the AIMS Market Report (Attached) 

 

AHDB’s latest red meat retail data up to 13th  June 2021, is now available

 

Beef Click Here

 

LambClick Here

 

PorkClick Here

 

Poultry Quarterly Q3 2021: Improving Local Industry Performance, Shifting Trade Flows Click Here

 

Rabobank has published it’s Q3 Poultry Report. As AIMS are not clients of Rabobank we are unable to access the full report

 

The outlook for the global poultry industry continues to improve. 

 

This is mainly driven by the reopening of economies as vaccination levels accelerate in developed countries and increase in emerging markets. 

 

This will help the recovery of global, regional, and especially foodservice demand, which, on average, makes up one-third of global poultry demand. 

 

As supply usually responds slowly to such increases, significant price inflation in 2H 2021 is possible, especially as feed prices remain high and avian influenza has disrupted global trade of breeding stock. Global trade flows are shifting, with less focus on China (because of local supply growth) and the Middle East (because of food security ambitions), and more focus toward northeast Asia and Europe.

 

However, some highlights from this report include:

 

  • Strong local market conditions are expected in the US, Mexico, Japan, and Russia, while Europe and South Africa are expected to see better conditions due to stronger demand and, in Europe, lower production. 

 

  • Disease is still having a big impact on international markets. High pressure from avian influenza has shaken up industries in northeast Asia and Europe, and resulted in production drops in Japan, South Korea, Russia, and the EU. Import restrictions have also impacted export volumes from Europe (chicken and hatching eggs) and Russia (chicken), which is impacting supply in the Middle East and Africa (MEA).

 

  • Feed prices are expected to stay high, although slightly lower than previously expected. High feed prices will slow expansion of production in many markets, due to high working capital requirements. 

 

  • Global trade has been highly impacted by Covid-19, with quarterly trade volumes down by 5% to 10%. Improved market conditions in Europe, northeast Asia, and Mexico will help trade flows to recover in these regions. This should offset more difficult trade conditions in China and the MEA region, resulting from local African swine fever recovery and food security ambitions, respectively.

 

And Finally…

 

New figures released in the annual Bord Bia Export Performance and Prospects report 2020/2021 show that exports of Irish food, drink and horticulture were held to a marginal 2% decline in 2020, valued at €13 billion, during a period of unprecedented change and challenge.

 

To read or download a copy of the report: Click Here

 

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28th June

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Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report.

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

Click here for the EU Poultry Dashboard for Week 24 2021

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

FAO Food Outlook 2021- what does it say about meat? Click Here

 

AHDB’s Senior Analyst Red Meat, Bethan Wilks has looked at what the recently published UN Food and Agriculture Organisation report says about meat.

 

We have also looked at the report from a poultry perspective. Follow the link: Click Here and enter the word ‘Poultry’ into the search. Extract Below:

 

Solid demand from East Asia strengthen international meat prices International meat prices in May, measured by the FAO Meat Price Index, were up by 9.0 points (9.4 percent) from January 2021, with pig meat prices registering the sharpest increase (11.3 percent), followed by poultry meat (9.3 percent), bovine meat (8.6 percent) and ovine meat (6.7 percent). International meat prices rose from January to May, reflecting solid global meat import demand induced by the continued meat deficit in East Asia, mainly China1 but also Viet Nam, despite the expanding domestic production in key producing regions. Furthermore, demand for replenishing the strategic pig meat stock in China, which was depleted due to various interventions by the Government to keep a lid on domestic prices, also added to the high meat import demand. Meanwhile, meat imports by some countries in the Middle East and North Africa region rose, driven by increasing petroleum prices, rising demand from the hospitality industry and high interest for halal-certified meat. The slowly recovering food services sales and associated intermediate demand in the Americas also contributed to the rise in meat import demand

 

NOTE: Page 58 provides an in-depth look at the poultry market

 

Australian sheep meat in the UK

 

AHDB’s Lead Analyst, Duncan Wyatt looks at Australia position in the global sheep market where it dominates when it comes to export volumes, with New Zealand a close second. The UK is a distant third, but it is also the fourth biggest importer of sheep meat.

 

To read his update: Click Here

 

Rabobank Reports

 

Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Beef Supply Chains: Significant Opportunities for Reductions and Supply Chain Leadership

 

We are unable to access the full report as we are not Rabobank clients however, a summary can be read: Click Here

 

North American Agribusiness Review June 2021

 

Some key points: 

 

  • The economic recovery appears to have lost momentum, but a temporary labour shortage is distorting the data. Meanwhile, inflation is going through the roof as base effects, supply bottlenecks, and fiscal stimulus are adding up.

 

  • Record-setting beef exports to China, combined with domestic demand influenced by large consumer incomes and savings, grilling season, and restaurant re-openings lifted the comprehensive cut out. However, cut out values have started to plateau recently, suggesting a start to the seasonal decline.

 

  • Pork production continues to fall, reflecting lower hog inventories and labour constraints. Record-high hog prices are likely to incentivize faster growth, yet feed cost uncertainty and impending Proposition 12 housing regulations could limit expansion and slow production recovery.

 

This report is on general release. To read or download: Click Here

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21st June

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Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report.

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

There are also a couple of additional slides at the end of the report on the chicken market in the EU and US

 

We have also attached the EU Poultry Meat Dashboard to 16th June 2021 Click here

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

AHDB Red meat retail dashboard – June 2021

 

The latest red meat retail data up to 16th May 2021, is now available.

 

The Beef Market: Click Here

 

The Lamb Market: Click Here

 

The Pork Market: Click Here

British Shoppers Bring Retail Boom for Red Meat Click Here

 

Consumers across Britain spent a significant total of £4.1 billion on beef, lamb and pork in 12 months alone, according to the latest data released by Kantar, the consumer-insight experts.

Australian beef in the UK Click Here

 

AHDB Lead Analyst, Duncan Wyatt looks at the Australian Beef Market’s current presence in the UK and the recently signed trade agreement.

 

Some additional reports of Interest, published this week, by AHDB MI:

 

  • Chinese meat imports climb, but pace slowing Click Here

 

China brings home the bacon for Spanish pig meat exporters Click Here

 

  • UK lamb exports drop back during April Click Here

 

  • UK pig meat export volume back in decline in April Click Here

Everyone at AIMS is here to support any members, please email if you have any questions.

 

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14th June

Please circulate this update to all relevant staff within your business.

Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report.

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

AHDB Market Reports

 

Beef production lifts again in MayClick Here

 

Prime cattle prices ease back since May peakClick Here

 

May continues the trend in UK sheep productionClick Here

 

Liveweight Lamb Prices EaseClick Here

 

UK pork production drops back during May, but remains higher than a year agoClick Here

 

Mintec Reports

 

Mintec have published the following reports.

 

  • Chicken Market Outlook EU & US

  • Pork Market Outlook EU & US

 

The terms of our license prohibit us from sharing these reports. However, should you wish to discuss them with us, please email: tony.goodger@aims2001.co.uk

Everyone at AIMS is here to support any members, please email if you have any questions.

 

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7th June

Please circulate this update to all relevant staff within your business.

Click here this week’s AIMS Market Update report.

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

Beef market update

In this latest video, AHDB’s MI team look at the factors affecting the UK cattle market. 

Beef Market Update June 2021. To watch: Click Here

Lamb market update

In the latest video, AHDB livestock analyst Charlie Reeve talks through the current factors affecting the UK lamb market. 

Lamb Market Update - June - 2021. To watch: Click Here

Market Reports from AHDB MI

 

What's behind high global beef prices? Click Here

 

EU beef and lamb demand: how has 2021 fared so far? Click Here

 

Liveweight new season lamb prices tick up Click Here

The cost and profit comparisson of a beef pattey verses a plant based patty: Source Mintec

It was also interesting to note in the report (I am sorry that we are unable to share the report in full) that a typical plant based burger contains 35% water verses a typical beef based burger at around 3%

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31st May

Please circulate this update to all relevant staff within your business.

Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report.

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

Argentina’s Temporary Ban on Beef Exports has Potential Market Impacts Click Here

 

Last week, Argentina’s president announced a 30-day ban on beef exports as part of an attempt to control rising inflation, which is approaching 50%. In protest, the country’s main farm groups said they would launch a nine-day halt in livestock trading.

 

There are also reports of processing plants in the country shutting down in response to this decision. While the export ban could very well be counterproductive for Argentina, it is unlikely to have a negative impact on U.S. producers and may even lead to increased U.S. beef exports. While the immediate impacts of the Argentine government’s decision are short-term (assuming the ban is not extended), it has the potential to disrupt beef import and export supply chains and will likely place upward pressure on already elevated beef prices.

 

NOTE: We have included a slide at the back of this week’s report showing prices for Argentine steers vs UK Steers

 

Lloyds Register Food Fraud Report Click Here

 

Supply chains have become ever more integral to the consumer’s perception of a brand and consideration of a product. 

 

The report click here indicates an urgent need for more transparency across food and beverage supply chains if customer confidence is to remain intact. 

 

The report looks to raise awareness of the critical risk factors found and to inspire a new conversation on the opportunity for improvement.

 

Watch: Journalism student’s video project showcases UK broiler production

 

A BROADCAST journalism student and poultry farmer’s daughter has used her final project to showcase how chicken is produced in the UK.

 

Bethan Edwards’ family farm broilers in Shropshire and she has just completed a degree in broadcast journalism from the University of Salford.

 

To watch the video: Click Here

Shoppers flocked from chicken to lamb for Easter 2021 as red meat sales soared

 

AHDB analysis shows that compared to the strict restrictions of last year, 2021’s more normal festivities were a winner for all red meat categories. Meaty growth was seen in roasting volume sales across beef (45 per cent), lamb (42 per cent) and pork (25 per cent), while whole chicken sales declined for the first time in years.

 

To read this short report: Click Here

 

AHDB has also published Easing lockdown boosts Easter lamb: Click Here

 

Will high UK prices encourage New Zealand lamb imports?

 

“Lamb prices in New Zealand have been rising in recent weeks but still remain well below the high GB farmgate prices observed during the last few months. The gap between farmgate prices in New Zealand and the UK is currently in excess of £2/kg deadweight.” Says AHDB’s Charlie Reeve in a short report: Click Here

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25th May

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We were asked by a member for any information we could find on the chicken market. Click here for information sourced from Defra and Mintec.

 

In terms of the market at present we found the following two pieces of commentary

 

“The broiler sector is working hard to make up for lost ground during the lockdowns of 2020.

Total day-old chick numbers in the UK were up by almost 12 million in the first four months of this year, a rise of 3% on the same period of 2020.

Broiler placings showed an increase in every month but February, with a rise of 3.3m in January, 4.1m in March, and 4.3m in April.

Despite this, production is still lagging behind last year.

Chicken output was down by 16,000 tonnes during January-April compared with the same period of last year, to 583,000t overall.

Production was down by around 3,000t or more in each of the four months, averaging a 3% fall on 2020.

This is partly explained by a matching decline in live weights of the birds arriving at processing plants.

The average liveweight of all birds processed across the first four months of the year dropped from 2,229g to 2,142g, a fall of 4%.

Meanwhile, the UK's turkey sector, which relies much more on catering in the early part of each year, has been struggling.

Total output was down by 7,000t to 16,400t in the three months from February to April, which amounts to a decline of 30%.

The picture on day-old poult placings is more encouraging. Placings of day-old poults increased by 22,000 in the first four months of this year, a rise of 5%, with the strongest growth in March and April.

This upturn should start to appear in higher production figures in the coming months. “ Source Poultry Network

 

In terms of globally there are several factors which are moving prices upwards, mainly due to Avian Influenza. These are:

 

“From 23rd May 2021 Saudi Arabia has banned imports of poultry meat from 11 processing plants in Brazil. Whilst the reason for the ban has not been specified it is Brazil’s 2nd biggest market after China accounting for 11% of total chicken exports.

 

That said, Brazilian poultry meat production is expected to rise by 5.5% to 14.5 million metric tonnes in 2021. This will mean that they have surpluses looking for global markets. No doubt they will be looking to increase their sales into China.

 

The Avian Influenza (AI) outbreak is continuing to take a toll on the Polish Poultry Market causing supply issues. In the third week of April 2021 23 cases of AI were reported leading to the culling of a further 400,000 hens and turkey birds. It is reported that some poultry farmers do not have the ability to clear all of the dead birds quickly which could delay restocking by between 5 and 8 weeks.  The lack of supply has pushed the price of Polish Chicken up 18% Year on Year and 11% quarter on quarter. AI has caused the slaughter of more than 20 million birds in an attempt to stop the spread.

 

According to market analysts  the UK is likely to face chicken shortages over the coming months as a result of AI outbreaks in the EU. UK stocks of cuts such as breast fillets are down month on month. As a result of culling due to AI in the EU there is now upward pressure on EU chicken prices with an average of 8% year on year being reported up to mid-April. As a result of this the EU is to resume poultry imports from Ukraine as despite there being AI in the country not all regional production areas have been affected.

 

Demand has also been affected by Coronavirus as consumers have shifted their demand to more affordable animal proteins such as chicken. It is also important to remember that high feed and shipping costs have increased the cost of production and supply to market, again causing prices to increase.” Source Mintec

 

Please feel free to contact us with any other requests on market information and we’ll be happy to see what we can find.

 

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24th May

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Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report. At the back of the report you will find a Feature on Beef Trim Prices which was requested by one of the members.

 

Please keep the information confidential within your business.

 

All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

Short Reports from AHDB

 

Irish beef exports to GB drops back in 2021Click Here

 

UK sheep meat exports lift in MarchClick Here

 

Brazilian pig meat exports pick up paceClick Here

 

COVID-19 behaviours which will stickClick Here

 

Pork Quarterly Q2 2021: Production Setbacks Slow Growth, Boosting Prices and Returns Click Here

 

AIMS are not Rabobank customers so we don’t have full access to this report. However, the highlights which cover China, US, Europe and Brazil make for some interesting reading.

 

Packaging News

 

This week we have looked at the website of Packaging News Click Here and have picked out a couple of stories which we hope you’ll find of interest

 

Warm reception for frozen food | Category Focus – chilled and frozen food Click Here

 

Supplier Analysis – Compostables | Challenges and opportunities Click Here

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17th May

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To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

Does the German market hold opportunities for UK lamb?

 

Germany is a net importer of sheep meat products. In 2020, Germany imported 47,900 tonnes of sheep meat (including offal) and exported just 5,000 tonnes. To read this short insight report: Click Here

 

AIMS view: According to Wikipedia, 6% of Germany’s population is Muslim (5 million people) making this a good opportunity for Halal Lamb.

 

We also saw on Wikipedia a List of cities in the European Union by Muslim population Click Here which could also provide some markets for British Halal Lamb

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10th May

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All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

Red meat retail dashboards Click Here

 

BEEFClick Here

 

LAMBClick Here

 

PORKClick Here

 

How a food communication expert inspires consumers Click Here

 

Denise Spencer-Walker, AHDB’s Food Communication Manager, shares how integral the role is when selecting, preparing and creatively designing food recipes for AHDB’s multimillion pound marketing campaigns.

 

Consumer Insights: Understanding consumer needs behind in-home meals Click Here

 

The UK’s 27 million households have a collective 82 billion consumption moments each year, providing a huge opportunity for our industry to influence what people choose to eat. The challenge for AHDB and the wider industry is that each of these is different, making it difficult to analyse consumers’ decision-making. To better understand consumer behaviour, we have worked with Kantar to group meal occasions into clusters, sharing core drivers and distinct needs.

 

To Download the Report: Click Here

 

To view a short presentation on the report: Click Here

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3rd May

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To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

UK food and drink exports wobbled in 2020 but here are five reasons to be cheerful, survey suggests Click Here

 

After more than a decade of continuous growth, the £104bn UK food and drink sector experienced a significant drop in exports in 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19. 

 

However, there remains “significant headroom for growth for UK food and drink exports, both within the EU and further afield”, according to a report by the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) and Santander: Click Here

 

Short Reads from food industry media

 

New Climate Label Exciting European Food Brands Click Here

 

Suppliers face axe for shunning social commitments Click Here

 

The ability to demonstrate a positive social and environmental impact is fast becoming “non-negotiable” for hospitality sector suppliers, after research found a majority of business leaders will only deal with responsible supply chain partners.

 

The research by Sodexo found two thirds (66%) of business leaders say they have already started replacing suppliers in the last year that don’t live up to their diversity and inclusion values.

 

Covid-19: Food Sector and Commodity Impact Report

 

The price impact of COVID-19 on commodity markets remains prevalent, despite it being more than a year since various countries announced lockdown restrictions to limit the spread of COVID-19. 

 

The impact of these restrictions on commodity markets through panic buying, stockpiling, protectionism, and eventually a significant loss in demand from the foodservice sector have been evident.

But now more than a year on, this report looks at:

 

  • The price impact the lockdown restrictions have had on key commodity markets

 

  • How the food industry has developed new coping strategies 

 

  • If companies are finally now re-adjusted to the impact of the 'new normal'.

 

  • And which economies have started easing social controls as well at what this means

 

The report covers key commodity categories and also looks at potential changes in markets in the coming months.

 

To read the full report: Click Here

 

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26th April

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All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

Understanding consumer needs

 

The UK’s 27 million households have a collective 82 billion consumption moments each year, providing a huge opportunity for our industry to influence what people choose to eat. The challenge for AHDB and the wider industry is that each of these is different, making it difficult to analyse consumers’ decision-making. To better understand consumer behaviour, we have worked with Kantar to group meal occasions into clusters, sharing core drivers and distinct needs.

 

 

  • To watch the accompanying short presentation video: Click Here

 

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19th April

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All AHDB Data is levy funded

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

Global Chicken Market Update Click Here

 

I have put the full text below in case of there being problems with the above link.

 

Global chicken prices have been trending higher year-on-year (y-o-y) in line with tight supplies due to Avian Influenza (AI). The economic downturn due to the COVID-19 crisis has led consumers to shift their demand towards the most affordable animal protein - chicken.

 

EU chicken price reached EUR 1.97/kg in March 2021, up 6% y-o-y and 3% m-o-m, with a rise in retail sales and foodservice demand. High feed ingredients and shipping costs have been providing further bullish impetus to prices.

 

US chicken prices also firmed up to USD 2.02/kg, up 33% y-o-y and 13% m-o-m during the reported period, driven by robust retail demand and high feed prices. Unlike other meat categories, foodservice demand for chicken is likely to remain firm in the short term, as it is cheaper in value than other meats. Additionally, improving US-China trade relations are projected to support US chicken exports and prices.

 

Thailand has always been one of the largest chicken suppliers to Asia and cooked chicken to the EU and the UK. In some Asian markets such as South Korea and Japan, AI has resulted in the mass culling of poultry birds, thus increasing their reliance on Thai chicken imports. Also, Thai cooked chicken mainly goes as an ingredient in processed, frozen and value-added products. During the pandemic, consumers have been engaged in more home cooking, which has triggered the demand for chicken burgers, nuggets, and kebabs. Consequently, the increase in home cooking demand led Thai chicken prices to reach TBH 48/kg in March.

 

The key watch-out factors in the chicken market for the next three months would be the outbreak of AI in the top chicken importing countries, particularly Asia, and the continued spread of COVID-19 across the globe.

 

Source: Mintec Commodity Report April 2021

The Road to Change: Transforming the World’s Global Food System is a short film from Rabobank and well worth watching: Click Here

 

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12th April

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The AHDB Data is levy funded

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the latest edition of AHDB Pork Weekly: Click Here

 

The AHDB Retail dashboards for April are now available: Click Here

 

Beef supply chain absorbing cattle price increase Click Here

 

GB cattle prices have strengthened considerably throughout the coronavirus pandemic. However, the same cannot be said of beef retail prices. 

 

According to data from Kantar: Click Here average beef retail prices have risen by around 3% in the past year, and AHDB’s own supermarket price series records a drop in prices for the cuts it follows.

 

The run up to Ramadan 2021 Click Here

 

AHDB Analyst, Hannah Clarke comments, “With Easter now behind us, the next big event on the sheep meat market calendar is the Muslim festival of Ramadan.” She looks at the opportunities for producers and processors.

 

2020: A mixed year for global pork prices. What next?  Click Here

 

A short report from AHDB Senior Red Meat Analyst, Bethan Wilkins.

 

Poultry industry in the United Kingdom- statistics & facts Click Here

 

A report from Statistica,  published April 2021

 

With the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union, concerns have arisen over chlorinated chicken imports from the United States. Questions are being raised about what the future standards will be for the poultry industry in the UK. All these questions are of major relevance to the more than 3,000 companies working on raising poultry in the UK. In 2020, 1.06 billion broilers, almost 62 million boiling fowl and 16 million turkeys were slaughtered in the UK.

 

Report from the USA: LAMB: THE LATEST MEAT IN HIGH DEMAND Click Here

 

Lamb sales are surging.

 

While shoppers used to be wary due to its higher price tag, store sales of lamb jumped 28% year-over-year as of last month, according to Nielsen. 

 

Meanwhile, beef sales rose 25.6% and pork sales increased 20.5% over the same period.

 

In case you missed it…

 

Why have suppliers overtaken retailers on animal welfare? Comment & Opinion piece from The Grocer: Click Here

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5th April

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Click here for this week’s AIMS Market Update report.

 

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The AHDB Data is levy funded

 

Please Note, there was no data from Urner Barry this week owing to the Bank Holiday

 

To read the current edition of AHDB Pig Weekly: Click Here

 

To read the current edition of AHDB Cattle & Sheep Weekly: Click Here

 

Some short videos from AHDB

 

  • Supply and Demand in the Beef Market – April 2021Click Here

 

  • Latest Market Developments affecting Sheep Meat – April 2021Click Here

 

  • Some Improvement in the GB Pork Market – April 2021Click Here

Rabobank: Poultry Quarterly Q2 2021: The Bumpy Road to RecoveryClick Here

 

As countries reopen foodservice, and while their control of Covid-19 improves, the poultry industry will start to recover. On average, 35% of global poultry consumption is via foodservice. “In countries where several of these disruptive factors come together, broiler prices have risen to high levels. Some governments have started to intervene to protect their economies against price inflation,” according to Nan-Dirk Mulder, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein. 

 

Unfortunately we are unable to access the full report however the link does include the report’s highlights.

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29th March

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The information from AHDB is levy funded.

 

GB cattle trade jumps again

 

“In the week ended 20 March, the deadweight cattle trade jumped up again” writes Bethan Wilkins Senior Analyst Red Meat at AHDB. To read her full article: Click Here

 

What impact will input prices have in 2021?

 

With margins tight for many farms, AHDB economists, Mark Topliff and Carol Davis take a look at the key input prices for feed, fertiliser and fuel, and where they might go in 2021. To read their full report: Click Here

 

What’s behind the high GB lamb prices?

 

A short video presentation from AHDB analyst Bronwyn Magee. To watch: Click Here

 

Tighter Supply Helps Support Cattle Prices in 2021

 

A short video presentation from AHDB analyst Charlie Reeve. To watch: Click Here

 

HCC Market Bulletin – March 2021 Click Here

 

Here you can read the monthly market bulletins produced by HCC to update the industry on the latest statistics on prices and livestock numbers.

 

To read March 2021: Click Here

UK beef prices could well take off over the next few years Click Here

 

This opinion piece published on Agriland is well worth taking a few minutes to read.

 

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22nd March

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The AHDB data is all levy funded.

 

We’d also like to draw your attention to the last 4 slides which are new to the report this week

 

January brought continued growth for meat and dairy Click Here

 

Rebecca Miah, AHDB’s Strategy Director for beef and lamb, said: 

 

“These numbers are a really excellent start to the New Year and reflect how highly valued red meat and dairy are to consumers. While alternatives show growth from a small base, these are mostly complimentary additional purchases driven by interest and variety, rather than a move away from real meat and dairy consumption.  

 

“This supports the main message of AHDB’s ‘Eat Balanced’ campaign, launched in January, which encourages a diverse and inclusive diet of all food groups.”

 

To read the full report: Click Here

 

Another spring in the step of cattle prices

 

“In the week ending 13 March, the GB all prime average cattle price stood at 380.8p/kg, up 3.8p on the week before. This measure is now 45.4p/kg above the price achieved in the same week last year.” Writes Charlie Reeve, livestock analyst at AHDB. 

 

To read his full report: Click Here

 

EU pig numbers increase with strong growth from Spain

 

“The largest growth in numbers was seen in Spain, Denmark and Poland. Spain increased its herd size in 2020 by 1.43 million head. Spain was already the EU’s largest producer of pigs and this 5% increase widens the gap further between the other major European pig producing nations.”

 

Writes Charlie Reeve, livestock analyst at AHDB. 

 

To read his full report: Click Here

 

African Swine Fever: A Global Update – Ongoing Change in Global Pork Markets in 2021

 

“African swine fever is actively influencing pork markets around the world, creating many areas of uncertainty – mainly in China, but also in Germany – which will not be resolved quickly. The implications of ASF for world pork trade are a major swing factor in global pork markets.” Says an update report from Rabobank

 

To read the extracts from the report: Click Here

 

Beef Quarterly Q1 2021: New Drivers in Cattle Innovation

 

“Increasing awareness of the need to improve environmental and social outcomes, together with a growing appetite from investors in animal protein, are creating new opportunities and growth in cattle innovation.” Says an update report from Rabobank

 

To read the extracts from the report: Click Here

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15th March

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Note, all of the AHDB data is levy funded.

Global Poultry’s Investment Reality in the Covid-19 Era: Strengthening Business Models in a Challenging Period of Rapid Change Click Here

 

The report from Rabobank identifies three stages of Covid-19’s impact on the global poultry industry.

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8th March

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All AHDB data is levy funded.

 

Post-COVID opportunities for the eating out market Click Here

 

Hospitality has been one of the industries most affected by the coronavirus pandemic, and the challenges look set to continue. Estimates suggest that eating-out consumption declined by over half in 2020 with restaurants, cafes and bars forced to close during lockdown.

 

Food-to-go needs evolve due to pandemic Click Here

 

Prior to COVID-19, food-to-go* (FTG) was the hero of the foodservice market. According to Lumina Intelligence it had seen a decade of growth and in 2019 outperformed the wider eating-out market, growing 2.4% in value to £21.2bn. This was driven by expansion, new product development and time poor consumers.

 

Strong January performance for red meat and dairy Click Here

 

January has seen a strong performance from red meat and dairy – a continuation of its Christmas success says AHDB in an informative report.

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1st March

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The AHDB data is levy funded.

Rabobank lays out three steps to navigate global poultry market Click Here

 

RABOBANK has said that investors in poultrymeat businesses should prepare for an uneven recovery to markets over 2021 and, in the longer-term, changes to distribution models.

 

The bank’s research arm has outlined three stages to the pandemic – ‘Disruption’, ‘dual market to recovery’ and ‘The Aftermath’.

 

To read the full reportClick Here

 

EU Exit perspectives: Global opportunities for agri-food sector gives food for thought Click Here

 

International Market Development Director Dr Phil Hadley reflects on the launch of the Government’s ‘Open Doors’ food and drink exports campaign: Click Here, what it will mean for the UK agri-food sector and how a collaborative approach will pay dividends for our producers and processors on the global stage.

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22nd February

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The information from AHDB is levy funded.

 

AHDB – Sector Forecast Reports

 

AHDB have published some sector forecast reports looking at production in Australia

 

 

  • Australian sheep meat production forecast to rise in 2021 Click Here

 

AHDB - How did the pandemic affect UK beef trade in 2020? Click Here

 

Hannah Clarke, an Analyst at AHDB uses the full UK trade data for 2020 to see  how imports and exports of beef fared during what was an unforgettable (or memorable, depending on your perspective) year.

 

Urner Barry Podcast - UK Beef Chat – Click Here

 

The podcast features Mike Nesbitt and Jay Alletto who are joined by fellow market reporters Joe Muldowney, Bill Smith and Gary Morrison. They discuss Valentine's Day's effect on the beef supply chain and the UK Beef Market in general.

 

Mintec - Price and trade impact of the Brexit deal on EU and UK commodity markets

 

Commodity data supplier, Mintec, has published a report which looks at the impact of Brexit on EU and UK food and associated commodity markets.

 

The report provides a category update on commodity price movements since the Brexit deal between the UK and EU on 24th December 2020. 

 

It shows that the agreement has had a muted price impact on most categories to date.

 

The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) permits trade to continue across the English Channel without duties or taxes, to maintain the competitive position of EU exports to the UK and vice versa. 

 

The analysis focuses on key commodity categories, delving into the main challenges facing importers and exporters on both sides.

 

To read the report in full please go to the Members Resources area of the AIMS website: www.aims2001.co.uk (you will need the password to enter this section. If you have forgotten the password please contact office@aims2001.co.uk ) under ‘Market Update’.

 

The link to the report is below the AHDB Pig Meat Market Forecast 2021.

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Click on the dates below to download previous Market Reports

15th February

8th February

1st February

25th January

18th January

11th January

28th December

21st December

14th December

7th December

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